What is most likely to happen as a country develops?
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Cambridge 9708, Paper 3 & 4. 1,666 questions, 2020 to 2026.
Paper 3 multiple-choice questions and Paper 4 data-response/essay questions and case studies, retyped from the original Cambridge material; artwork and data tables are reproduced as images. Mark schemes show the official answer key and level-marked indicative content.
Questions on the characteristics of countries at different levels of development: population, employment structure, dependence on primary products, and the barriers to development.
41 past paper questions on this topic since 2020, across 17 exam sessions.
| Year | Paper 3 | Paper 4 | Total | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2025 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| 2024 | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| 2023 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| 2022 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 2021 | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| 2020 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
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What is most likely to happen as a country develops?
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What is not a characteristic of an emerging economy?
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Which combination of characteristics is usually associated with a low-income country?
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What is least likely to lead to an increase in optimum population?
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5 Consider whether the use of gross national income (GNI) alone is sufficient to measure the standard of living in a high-income country (HIC). [20]
Consider whether the use of gross national income (GNI) alone is sufficient to measure the standard of living in a high-income country. Use TableA: AO1 Knowledge and understanding and AO2 Analysis and Table B: AO3 Evaluation to mark candidate responses to thisquestion.
AO1 and AO2 out of 14marks. AO3 out of 6 marks.
AO1 Knowledge and understanding and AO2 Analysis
AO3 Evaluation
Accept all valid responses.
AO1 Knowledge and understanding and AO2 Analysis
AO3 Evaluation
Many low-income countries have large proportions of the population below the World Bank’s absolute poverty level of $2.15 per day (United States dollars, 2022). One way in which these countries try to reduce their poverty is by the migration of workers to richer countries. The migrants send a portion of their incomes, known as remittances, back home to support their families.
These overseas workers are a link between migration and development. The flow of remittance money is greater than the foreign direct investment and official development aid received by middle-income and low-income countries. Total remittances received by those countries in 2022 was $650 billion, of which 45% ($293 billion) was received by only five countries.
About 50% of migrants from low-income countries went to high-income countries.
Migrants can find their incomes increase significantly. A nurse may make seven times more in Australia than in the Philippines, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP).
Unlike official aid, remittances flow directly to their receivers and are a stable source of income. They can buy extra food and they may provide savings for the receiver. They may reduce child labour in disadvantaged families and allow for higher spending on education through higher enrolments and more years of completed schooling.
Migration can reduce unemployment and raise wages in home countries. Migration may lead to larger benefits for the home country by increasing the rates of return on human capital caused by the creation of better, more productive, and higher paying jobs.
When the flow of migrants goes to a host country whose population is ageing, it may reduce the average age of the population. This can lead to an increase in the size of the labour force, reduce the age dependency ratio and make a positive tax contribution. The migrants increase the demand for host country output and may utilise housing in less popular areas. Those with a high level of education make an even more significant contribution to economic output.
Sources: The Guardian, 23 August 2023 asia.nikkei.com, 3 March 2023 imf.org, March 2020
(b) Explain, with the aid of a diagram, how the migration of workers from a low-income country is likely to affect wages in the low-income country. [5]
Explain, with theaid of a diagram, how the migration of workers from a low-income country is likelyto affect wages in the low-income country. Labels and axes Wages/labour (1) Initial S and D for labour (1) and equilibrium point (1) Reduction in the supply of labour (supply curve shift) (1) New equilibrium wage and quantity (1)
Maximum 3 marks if no diagram
Since 1971 Bangladesh has experienced significant economic development, moving from the low-income to the lower-middle-income country classification. Gross National Income (GNI) per capita at constant 2017 prices in United States dollars ($) rose from $2342 to $5823 between 2000 and 2020. Over the same period, the country’s Human Development Index (HDI) rose from 0.49 to 0.66.
During this period, Bangladesh underwent changes in employment as it moved from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing and services sectors.
First, in agriculture, output increased by more than 100% whilst employment fell from 65% to 38% of the working population. This change was helped by innovation in crop irrigation, land preparation and harvesting, aided by the development of local industries to provide the capital equipment needed.
A second source of economic development was the growth in the clothing industry producing ready-made garments (RMG) that contributed about 11% of Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employed 4.4 million workers of which 2.5 million were women (2020). The industry uses significant division of labour with production split into 10 or more processes, for example, cutting, sewing zips, assembly and packaging.
The value of raw materials imported for the RMG industry was about half of the value of the industry’s exports. Net exports from this sector stood at $23 billion. This enabled Bangladesh to both import a wider range of goods and services and reduce the deficit on its balance of trade in goods.
In 2020, there were more than 4000 RMG manufacturers in Bangladesh, differentiated by the quality of their products and the speed of their delivery. The RMG industry supplied more than 100 major US and European retailers.
However, the RMG industry has critics who point to air and water pollution from the chemicals used in cotton growing and manufacturing clothes. The industry is also accused of employing child labour and of having poorly constructed factories.
Sources: Bangladesh overview: World Bank, 11 April 2024 and Quarterly Review on Readymade Garments, Bangladesh Bank Research Department, 14 February 2023
(a) Identify what is included in the HDI. [3]
Identify what is included in the HDI. Health/Life Expectancy 1 Education/Years of Schooling 1 Income/Gross National Income pc/GNI 1
(d) With reference to the article, assess whether there is enough evidence to conclude that living standards in Bangladesh have improved since 1971. [8]
With reference to the article, assess whether there is enough evidence to conclude that living standards in Bangladesh have improved since 1971. Distinction between standard of living: monetary e.g. income and non- monetary e.g. health, education, water quality 1. Improvements Rise in GNI from 2342 US$ to 5823 US$ = 2481 1 US$/ 143% increase 1 HDI rose 0.49 to 0.66 1 Agricultural production/productivity. increased 1, Balance of Trade improved 1 Net exports increased 1, wider range of goods and services imported 1
Maximum 3 marks Disadvantages Development of negative externalities 1 air/water pollution 1 use of child labour 1 bad working conditions 1 Loss of agricultural jobs 1 Poorly constructed factories 1
Maximum 3 marks Conclusion Not enough evidence in the article 1 No information on housing/education or health 1
China’s economic miracle has been built on a seemingly endless supply of affordable labour from a population of 1.4 billion.
Content removed due to copyright restrictions.
Fig. 1.1 Annual population change in China, 1970 to 2050
Sources: Didi Tang, The Times, 29 April 2021 and 12 January 2023 US Census International Database, 15 February 2023
(a) Explain what is meant by an optimum population. [2]
Explain what is meant by an optimum population. The optimum size of population is an economy which, with existing natural resources/factors of production/ given state of technology, (1) yields the highest income per capita in a country/where the standard of life is at a maximum (1)
(b) Explain how China’s population structure changed between 1970 and 2020 and consider whether the statement ‘its population is decreasing’ is supported by Fig. 1.1. [5]
Explain how China’s population structure changed between 1970 and 2020 and considerwhetherthe statement ‘its population is decreasing’ is supported by Fig. 1.1. References should be made to: the declining birth rate, (1) an ageing population (1) an increasing dependency ratio (1) Fig.1. shows population still growing/ not declining/ growing at a slower rate up to 2020 (1). Fig 1.1 does not support the statement that ‘its population is decreasing (1)
(d) China’s government has a different view from what it says are the alarming statements made by economists. Consider the effects on the economy of the population policies suggested by China’s government. [7]
China’s government has a different view from what it says are the alarming statements made by economists. Consider the effects on the economyof the population policies suggested by China’s government. The one-child policy was based on the assumption that China’s population had increased beyond its optimum point and needed to transition to an economy based on skills, froman economy based on the size of its workforce.
(1) The one child policy did produce asignificant fall in the rate of increase of the population. However, this created challenges: an increasingly dependent population (1); a potential decline in savings and investment (1); leading to a fall in long term AS and AD (1) The two-child policy was introduced in 2016 to achieve economic growth and move back towards an optimum population (1) This policy was based on the assumption that China needed a young, skilled workforce, assisted by technology (1) This would make China internationally more competitive (1) leading to a rise in AD and AS in the long run. (1) A conclusion, for example, estimates based on fig 1.1 suggest that the intended effects of the two-child policy are unlikely to be achieved. (1)
Up to 3 marks maximum for discussing the effects of each policy. 1 mark for a conclusion
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